Trading Range | US Stock Daily Macro Terminal & Directory

US Market Executive Summary & Core Trading Regime

Market risk-on sentiment stabilizes as VIX pulls back to 15.40. 10Y Treasury yield hovering at 4.18% (Real TIPS Yield 1.82%) provides valuation relief, while Fed net liquidity standing firm at $6.15T continues to bolster tech multiples.

Core Macro Indicators Reference Table

Indicator LabelCurrent ValueNormal Baseline RangeFormula / Impact Logic
Fed Net Liquidity$6.15T$5.80T - $6.50TWALCL - WTREGEN - RPTCW (Correlates 85%+ with S&P 500)
10Y Treasury Yield4.18%3.80% - 4.50%Nominal Rate = 10Y Real TIPS Yield + Breakeven Inflation
30Y Treasury Yield4.42%4.10% - 4.80%Ultra-Long Rate = 30Y TIPS Real Rate + 30Y Inflation Breakeven + Term Premium
ICE BofA MOVE Index92.585.0 - 125.01-Month Implied Volatility on US Treasuries (Bond Market Volatility)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)15.4012.0 - 20.030-Day S&P 500 Implied Volatility Index
S&P 500 > 200D MA Breadth68.5%40.0% - 70.0%Percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above 200-Day Moving Average

Authoritative Sources & Citations

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) provides official macroeconomic time series for US Treasury yields, 10Y TIPS real rates, financial condition indices, and central bank balance sheet items.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and SKEW index quantify options-implied tail risk and market volatility expectations.

Source: CBOE Options Institute

US Department of Labor and Bureau of Labor Statistics supply high-frequency initial jobless claims and inflation data.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

About & Legal Transparency

Global Markets & Assets
S&P 500 (SPX)5,482.1+0.45%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)17,620.4+0.62%
10Y Treasury Yield4.18%-3bps
Volatility Index VIX15.40-4.2%
US Dollar DXY102.35-0.15%
Gold Futures GC$2,415.5+0.52%
WTI Oil CL$74.80+1.15%
Bitcoin BTC$68,450+3.10%
S&P 500 (SPX)5,482.1+0.45%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)17,620.4+0.62%
10Y Treasury Yield4.18%-3bps
Volatility Index VIX15.40-4.2%
US Dollar DXY102.35-0.15%
Gold Futures GC$2,415.5+0.52%
WTI Oil CL$74.80+1.15%
Bitcoin BTC$68,450+3.10%
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Current Core Trading Narrative

Market risk-on sentiment stabilizes as VIX pulls back to 15.40. 10Y Treasury yield hovering at 4.18% (Real TIPS Yield 1.82%) provides valuation relief, while Fed net liquidity standing firm at $6.15T continues to bolster tech multiples.

Trading Range | US Stock Daily Macro Terminal & Cross-Asset Monitor

US Market Executive Summary & Core Trading Regime

Market risk-on sentiment stabilizes as VIX pulls back to 15.40. 10Y Treasury yield hovering at 4.18% (Real TIPS Yield 1.82%) provides valuation relief, while Fed net liquidity standing firm at $6.15T continues to bolster tech multiples.

CNN Fear & Greed Index
65
Greed
Fed Net LiquidityCore Anchor
$6.15T
+$18B

Fed Assets - TGA - RRP

10Y Real Rate (TIPS)Valuation Discount
1.82%
-0.05%

Valuation Anchor for Growth

VIX VolatilityRisk Regime
15.40
-4.2%

S&P 500 Implied Volatility

Macro Regime Matrix & Allocation

Real-time 4-quadrant regime probabilities & playbooks

Goldilocks Active
1. Goldilocks Regime

Cooling Inflation + Easy Liquidity + Solid Growth

Suggested Playbook:Overweight Megacap Tech (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT) & High Beta Equities
2. Reflation & Growth

Strong Economic Expansion + Commodity Strength + Yield Pressure

Suggested Playbook:Overweight Cyclicals (Energy XLE, Industrials XLI, Financials XLF)
3. Deflation Shock

Labor Softening + Rising Risk Aversion + Rate Cuts

Suggested Playbook:Defensive Allocation (TLT Long Bonds, Utilities XLU, High Cash)
4. Stagflation Risk

Sticky Inflation + Economic Stagnation + P/E Multiple Squeeze

Suggested Playbook:Cash Preservation, Spot Gold (GLD) & Real Assets (TIPS)
Inputs: VIX=15.4 | 10Y=4.18% | NetLiq=$6.15TWin-Rate: 85% Bullish

Upcoming Macro & Earnings CatalystsRisk Events

Track high-impact releases & earnings volatility events

2026-08-1408:30 EST
High Impact

US July CPI Inflation Release

Core CPI print directly determines whether the Fed cuts 25bps or 50bps at the September FOMC meeting.

Forecast: 2.9% YoYPrevious: 3.0% YoY
2026-08-2716:05 EST
High Impact

NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Earnings$NVDA

Global AI capex bellwether that dictates medium-term sentiment for mega-cap tech and Nasdaq 100.

Forecast: EPS $0.64Previous: EPS $0.61
2026-08-2014:00 EST
Medium

FOMC Meeting Minutes Release

Provides detailed insights into Fed officials confidence on 2% inflation target and QT pace discussions.

2026-08-2210:00 EST
High Impact

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

Chair Powell delivers keynote speech; historically a pivotal turning point for Fed policy guidance.

2026-08-1508:30 EST
Medium

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

High-frequency labor barometer. Sustained moves above 250K signal economic deceleration risks.

Forecast: 232KPrevious: 233K
Weekly Playbook & Daily TimetableView Full Trading Calendar →

Sector Rotation & Relative Strength RadarSector Flow

Track institutional fund flows across 11 Select Sector SPDR ETFs

Growth Leading (Risk-On Flow)
Growth Sectors (Tech/Comm/Disc)XLK, XLC, XLY
+0.87% (1D)
Defensive Sectors (Util/Staples/Health)XLU, XLP, XLV
+0.08% (1D)
$XLKgrowth
Technology
1D+1.25%
$XLCgrowth
Communication
1D+0.92%
$XLYgrowth
Consumer Disc.
1D+0.45%
$XLFcyclical
Financials
1D+0.65%
$XLIcyclical
Industrials
1D+0.35%
$XLEcyclical
Energy
1D-0.42%
$XLVdefensive
Healthcare
1D+0.15%
$XLUdefensive
Utilities
1D-0.28%
$XLPdefensive
Staples
1D+0.05%
$XLBcyclical
Materials
1D+0.2%
$XLREdefensive
Real Estate
1D+0.4%

Position Risk Radar & Equity Exposure

Drawdown risk guidance based on VIX, breadth & credit spreads

Score: 59 / 100
Current Regime Status:Selective Consolidation (Neutral / Hedged Exposure)
Target Equity Exposure50% - 65%
Est. Max DrawdownModerate (4.0% - 7.0%)

Trim extended positions; deploy OTM Put options to hedge tail-risk drawdowns.

Model Inputs: VIX=15.4 | Breadth=68.5% | Spread=3.38%Risk Level: Low Risk

Panel 1: Liquidity & Interest Rates

9 Indicators
10Y Treasury Yield
Risk-Free Benchmark Rate
4.18%-3bps
30Y Treasury Yield
Ultra-Long Anchor / Term Premium
4.42%-2bps
ICE BofA MOVE Index
Treasury Volatility Benchmark
92.5-1.1%
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Un-inverted / Steepening
+0.12%+2bps
10Y TIPS Real Yield
Valuation Anchor for Growth
1.82%-0.05%
Fed Net Liquidity
Fed Assets - TGA - RRP
$6.15T+$18B
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions (NFCI)
Negative = Accommodative
-0.48-0.02
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Multinational Earnings & Liquidity
102.35-0.15%
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
Yen Carry Trade Unwind Risk
146.50-0.35%

Panel 2: Sentiment & Volatility

5 Indicators
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
S&P 500 Implied Volatility
15.40-4.2%
VIX Term Structure (VIX9D / VIX)
< 1.00 Contango / > 1.00 Backwardation
0.92-0.03
Fear & Greed Index Score
Greed
65 / 100
Options Put/Call Ratio (CBOE)
< 0.85 Bullish / > 1.05 Bearish
0.82
CBOE SKEW Black Swan Index
> 135 Tail Risk Demand High
135.4+1.2

Panel 3: Market Structure & Valuation

5 Indicators
S&P 500 > 200-Day MA %
Broad Market Breadth
68.5%+1.2%
S&P 500 > 50-Day MA %
Short-Term Momentum
72.4%+2.1%
RSP / SPY Relative Strength
Equal Weight vs Market Cap Weight
0.311
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)
Stock Risk Compensation Low
0.82%-0.04%
S&P 500 Forward P/E
Above 10-Yr Avg of 17.8x
20.8x

Panel 4: Cross-Asset & Macro High-Frequency

10 Indicators
Copper / Gold Ratio
Reflation & Macro Growth Temp
0.171
High Yield Credit Spread (HYG/LQD)
High Yield vs Investment Grade
1.18-0.20%
WTI Crude Oil Futures
Secondary Inflation Catalyst
$74.80+1.15%
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Real Yield Inverse & Safe Haven
$2,415.5+0.52%
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Canary in Liquid Coal Mine
$68,450+3.10%
Initial Jobless Claims (ICSA)
High-Frequency Labor Sensitivity
228K-5K
30-Year Mortgage Rate
Housing Market & Consumer Key
6.55%-0.08%
Citi Economic Surprise Index
Actual Data vs Consensus Expectations
+18.4+3.2
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate
Real-Time GDP Tracker Annualized
2.5%
Michigan 5-Yr Inflation Expectation
Fed Inflation Unanchoring Focus
3.0%0.0%